We were interviewed by former Tobis Fellow writer Scott Douglas Jacobsen, our 5th interview in this series!

I recently spoke with The Good Men Project and former Tobis Fellow writer Scott Douglas Jacobsen about the fallout from changes to the U.S. de minimis trade exemption — and how they’re quietly rewriting the global supply chain rulebook — “GLOBAL TRADE and FINANCE 5: Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and Market Shifts.”

This is our 5th interview in the series!

Here are some of the points I raised:
💡 “Much of what is bought in de minimis packaging is ‘want have’ not ‘need have’ … you may see less impulse purchases … as consumers react to the higher prices by just saying no.”

💡 “Compliance becomes a competitive moat … the cheapest good is not the most affordable good once you price in forms, data validation, and fines.”

💡 “We will see price rises, but they will be a step up in the going cost, not a continuous inflationary increase.”

💡 On India: “India’s best response may be to do what it is doing, run toward the open arms of its historical enemy and the U.S.’s main rival, China, while looking back over its shoulder to see if the U.S. gets the hint. The headline is ‘tariff pain’; the reaction is portfolio rotation within India.”

💡On the EU: “Expect cautious second‑half language and a cleaner 2026 plan”

💡 On rare earths: “You can hedge 20% to 30% of critical magnet demand for high-priority programs … while the rest stays exposed to Chinese price and policy swings.”

⚖️ The big picture:
De minimis wasn’t just a loophole, it was a foundation of cross-border e-commerce. Now, its erosion means higher costs, slower flows, and sharper divides between companies that can master compliance and those that can’t. This isn’t just about tariffs; it’s about who writes (and survives) the new invisible rulebook of global trade.

READ THE ENTIRE INTERVIEW FOR FULL THOUGHTS & COMMENTS

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