Reactions from world leaders to the summit which did not resolve Moscow’s war in Ukraine
“Investors react to US-Russia summit reaching no deal“—Wall Street correspondent Carolina Mandl called us for our take.
QUOTED EXCERPTS
MICHAEL ASHLEY SCHULMAN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, RUNNING POINT, EL SEGUNDO, CALIFORNIA:
“At this point, it has been three years into the war, so it really shouldn’t have much effect. I think markets will take it as status quo, but I think there’s only upside from here.”
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
Post-summit vibes were heavy on bromance energy and light on footnotes as President Putin praised President Trump, hinted at “a deal,” and invited him to Moscow. President Trump declared “great progress” and promised calls to NATO and President Zelensky. This feels like a Schrödinger’s deal—both alive and not—until details exist.
The real question: Did the leaders walk away from Alaska empty handed or not?
🟠The talking heads on media are framing this as a letdown: short meeting and no substances😟
🟠I’m more positive!😏 If Trump has phone calls to make to NATO, Zelensky, and “appropriate people” as he says, then it feels and sounds like something is there.
If there is a map🗺️, it probably looks like freeze-for-freeze with lines roughly along the current front and Crimea staying under Moscow —> Compliance would mean sanctions relief with automatic snapback, plus escrowed oil-and-gas revenues and immobilized Russian assets unlocked.
I think markets will take it as status quo
Classic UN peacekeeping🕊️isn’t viable without a Security Council mandate (and Russia’s veto lurks like Chekhov’s gun), so monitoring would likely be a European/non-U.N. multinational —> To be seen if Trump business and mineral rights are in the mix.
Ukraine remains the constitutional crucible. Any border change requires a nationwide referendum, so a land-for-peace shortcut would be both a legal Rubik’s Cube and a political Molotov cocktail. Maybe cease-fire now, sovereignty later?
President Zelensky can soften the music without changing the lyrics by greenlighting talks to stop the bleeding—humanitarian corridors, prisoner exchanges, grid protection, phased withdrawals—while ring-fencing any territorial decision for a future nationwide vote.
Until the mystery deal crawls out of its box📦, expect the battlefield to keep grinding like a bad clutch with continued Russian pressure around critical hubs and Ukrainian deep-strike economics.
From an investment and markets perspective:
🟠If nothing comes of this, then it is status quo and the markets mostly remain unaffected, although oil and gold could rally a little
🟠On the other hand, if positive announcements follow from Trump’s calls with European leaders, then the market could rally on a peace dividend and the possible opening of Russian markets
For now, “wait and hope.”
ALSO QUOTED in the article:
🔵Carol Schleif, CFA, FSA
🔵Eric Teal
🔵Eugene Epstein
🔵Tom di Galoma
🔵Jamie Cox
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