Retail sales rose even as sentiment sank this month, with Americans unsure of how things stand.
“Shoppers are splurging, but feel bad about it. Retail sales rose even as sentiment sank this month, with Americans unsure of how things stand.”—We were quoted in this Brew Markets article by reporter Judith Dutton.
QUOTED EXCERPT
“Americans are skipping the $17 martini salad and redeploying to big-ticket bargains and online deals,” explained chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors Michael Ashley Schulman, adding that some may have pulled forward car buys ahead of tariff noise and expiring EV credits. “Surveys say ‘I’m worried’; swipes say ‘but that washer’s 20% off.’”
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
Consumers are skittish in the survey and ruthless at the register; vibes down, deal-hunting up, and restaurant dining on a diet until the bill blinks.
Think of July as VIBES versus receipts; and the receipts won! Retail sales rose 0.5% on the month, juiced by autos and furniture and a Prime Day-style promo blitz that herded clicks into carts while restaurants and bars posted their biggest monthly drop since February. That’s not a mystery; it’s composition —> Households will still pounce on big-ticket deals (and some pulled forward car buys ahead of tariff noise and expiring EV credits), but they’re trimming discretionary services like dining out where prices stayed sticky.
Americans are skipping the $17 martini salad and redeploying to big-ticket bargains and online deals
What looks like a contradiction is really timing plus price physics. Sentiment fell as inflation expectations ticked up, yet spending held because PROMOTIONS lowered effective prices in goods, but not in food where menu inflation still outruns groceries.
Near term, expect consumers to be resilient and promo-dependent —> Goods should stay discount-driven; auto sales may cool after some pull-forward; dining will lag until value shows up on the check—think adult Happy Meal🪀
If inflation expectations keep edging up, or tariff pass-through pushes prices higher, households will keep drifting to in-store brands and trading down on services while pouncing on headline deals in goods.
Call it America’s new sport: bargain-hunting as a contact discipline😏
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