Interview: Trade is possibly more restricted, more taxed, and more burdened than it was at the beginning of President Trump’s second term and yet equity markets are at new high

“GLOBAL FINANCE and TRADE 3: Trade Talks, Market Highs, and the Future of Global Economics”—How have U.S. trade negotiations, tariff strategies, and global monetary policies shaped equity markets, currency trends, and economic resilience in 2025?—We were interviewed by The Good Men Project and former Tobis Fellow writer Scott Douglas Jacobsen, founder of In-Sight Publishing and Editor-in-Chief of In-Sight: Independent Interview-Based Journal.

“Schulman offers timely insights into macroeconomic trends, US fiscal policy, and the global tech landscape. In this in-depth July 2025 interview, economist Michael Ashley Schulman analyzes how US–China and US–UK trade negotiations contributed to record equity market highs despite geopolitical volatility. He explores the US dollar’s decline, driven by fiscal policy under Trump’s administration, and highlights mixed progress in bilateral trade talks ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. Schulman discusses the Bank for International Settlements’ warnings, Japan’s cautious monetary stance, and diverging PMI readings in China and the Gulf. His insights reveal how shifting trade dynamics, monetary policy, and global risk perceptions are influencing market behaviour, investor sentiment, and broader economic resilience worldwide.”

SELECT QUOTED EXCERPTS

Tariff and trade developments—with their unpredictable twists and cliffhangers—have been frequent discussion topics with our family office clients this year. Progress on US–China and US–UK trade negotiations, along with other trade deals, has contributed to record equity market highs in unexpected ways.

On the face of it, trade is possibly more restricted, more taxed, and more burdened than it was at the beginning of President Trump’s second term and yet equity markets are at new highs. Trump’s postponement of reciprocal tariffs and willingness to extend deadlines and negotiate deals has lifted hope that restrictions will not be as burdensome as initially construed.

Most critically, Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill enacted on July 4 prolonged his 2017 tax reductions past their year-end sunset, averting what would have been a significant tax hike, even as bond markets show remarkable—and maybe questionable—indifference to the fiscal ramifications.

There is a prevailing mood that we can grow and inflate our way out of the current debt-to-GDP ratio…, as so many other factors have weighed in TO KEEP GROWTH GROWING!

China…US… The betting markets are still unsure who has the weaker hand.

Picture the greenback as Alex Warren’s chart-topper “Ordinary”. Suddenly, everyone’s streaming something else, and the once-inescapable hook now sounds, well, ordinary. A 10.8 % slide in the Dollar Index during the first half of 2025 — its worst opening act since the ‘70s — set the stage for June’s three-year low.

READ THE ENTIRE INTERVIEW FOR MORE THOUGHTS & COMMENTS

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